PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Veteran Rhode Island pollster Joseph Fleming said Governor Chafee's decision Wednesday to bow out of what will likely be a costly and hard fought race for governor next year should not come as a surprise.
"All the poll numbers over the last three years showed him with very low job approval ratings," he said. "I didn't see any scenario that had him winning as an independent or Democratic candidate. The numbers just weren't there for the governor."
Chafee became a Democrat in May, leading many to believe he was trying to shore up his chances for winning. But Fleming believes the decision did not translate into the strong initial fundraising boost he sorely needed.
"It was a matter of hoping to raise a lot of money quickly, hoping that some of the Democrats would come on board with him," Fleming said. "I don't think he got the support he was looking for."
Like other observers, Fleming believes Chafee's exit benefits Providence Angel Taveras as he weighs a run for governor.
"They would have both been going after the same liberal, progressive base of the Democratic Party, so they would have split a lot of votes," he said.
Fleming said Raimondo, with her state-leading campaign war chest, must focus on increasing the Democratic primary turnout if she is to run. Based on polling, he said, her support base is more independent and unaffiliated voters.
But Fleming said a potentially bruising Democratic primary -- with or without Chafee in the picture -- still presents an opportunity for Rhode Island's diminished GOP and its possible standard bearer, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung.
"It seems that whenever Democrats have these nasty primaries, the Republicans benefit," he said. "That's something to watch."